I’ve never known a Wolves team concede so many penalties.
It’s just as well practice is paying off for Emi Martinez.
But it typified Sunday’s defensive horror show that Derby scored from the resulting corner moments after that massive let off.
That was the defining moment of the match and totally avoidable.
It was Jekyll and Hyde stuff after two cleansheets.
Poor decision making, lazy clearances, sloppy, slow, weak, cumbersome, leggy, naive defending. Individually and collectively, everyone is capable of better.
Brentford
I’ll level with you – I was hoping Brentford would storm the league this season (once it became apparent we weren’t going to anyway).
In case you don’t know Bees chairman Matthew Benham is applying statistical modelling to the club’s recruitment, known informally as the ‘Moneyball’ approach.
The idea that it would be possible to build a successful team by recruiting lesser known players with key attributes is an exciting one and something that could shake up the order of things.
I think football needs something like that, but sadly early evidence i.e. Brentford’s horrible start to the season, suggests it isn’t workable.
The manager has already been given the boot and replaced with Lee Carsley. They overcame Rotherham at the weekend to get back to winning ways and a win tomorrow would take them to within a point of their opponents.
Wolves
I don’t think Kenny made too many errors with his team selection at the weekend. Individuals simply let him down.
Jed Wallace was the surprise inclusion, but I always suspected the manager would deploy a narrower midfield against tougher opposition.
I think he might revert to two proper wingers tomorrow in what looks like a more winnable home match.
But everyone’s place is likely vulnerable so maybe Doherty, Coady, Byrne and even Ikeme could also come into consideration.
The gaffer
Predictions
I think we’re going to win our share of matches against the lesser sides this season and struggle against the top brass.
There aren’t enough match winners in the team or requisite defensive strength to win consistently. I’d love to be proven wrong.
But for that reason I think we might come out on top tomorrow and lose at the weekend.
I’ll go for 2-1
Up The Wolves!
I’m with you Thomas, I also think it will be a nervy close game after the drubbing we had on Sunday last.
I must say it was mostly our own doing,shambolic defending and lack of purpose in almost everything we tried.
With that said we really need to win this one,because Boro won’t give us now’t.Afobe brace.
UTW.
Hopefully back to winning ways against lesser opposition
I’m with you Eggasvan.
COMBs!!
I’ve bought Moneyball to watch on DVD. I’d never heard the term until last week.
The defence remains leaky.
The book is better than the film.
Afobe 2
Henry screamer
McDonald peach
Batth own goal
Time to turn it up again Wolves. Sloppy, lethargic, no directional play won’t cut it.
Wolves Ay We
COYW’s
For some reason I fancy us for this one and I expect the kids to turn in a much better performance at the back. What the hell are blues doing in second place. Makes me wonder how we can go so wrong for a club that is so well run financially yet a club in the mess that blues are in can be doing really well in the league.
Basically because Rowett is an outstanding manager.Get your money on him moving up the managerial ladder,maybe even crossing the city if you get my drift.
Boro losing tonight, proves any one can beat any one on any given day, so prediction league a total lottery, and watch us make a mockery of Sunday’s debacle.
100% tomorrow, three easy points, and Boro to come to town quaking in their boots.
Fowb
Got to win this one with a clean sheet to boot! Ojo in for Wallace otherwise same team that started on Sunday for me.
We need to win this one.
Going for a narrow win for our U’21s.
If our academy and our kids are so good as everyone keeps saying why arent our u21 and u18 teams not pulling up any trees in their leagues.
Very average in fact..
Smokescreen comes to mind. Flase flag propaganda…
Time to fluke 9 points then or 3 wins. call me optimistic..or plain stupid.
I hate Derby more now they took the piss last Sunday and revelled in it..They should be champions of this shite league..at least they are capable of it..
We have to win here..scrape a win on Saturday then prob a draw next door at Brum or something like that..
But reality is a bastard sometimes as
I contemplate what could be in this difficult run..
DB and co are worth a clean sheet so we need K Mac to play again and feed Afobe..I can’t help thinking re ALF that Dicko is sorely missed and really quite superb in these times..
We look too weak to me at the moment and I agree it’s going to be close..
We can beat Boro but I actually dread Brum..
It’s all getting a bit fraught at the moment..expectation versus realism..
It’s that word again…
COYW
Thanks Thomas for making mention of Brentford’s owner and his introduction of statistical modeling. Couple of supporting comments ..
Moneyball is book by Michael Lewis, that was made into a movie .. it focuses on Billie Beane, the GM for the Oakland Athletics, who made use of the advanced data analysis models proposed by Bill James in the 1980s, to support player acquisition and game strategy. “Sabermetrics” is unique to baseball, but it proposes an important strategy (highlighted in the film) that is still widely rejected in football .. the idea of using statistical evidence, and accepting the principles of mathematical predictability (“chance”) instead of relying upon the “opinion” and “gut instinct”, typically of one individual ..
Matthew Benham deserves tremendous recognition for bringing a fresh new approach to football, that is a great deal more accessible than many might think.
Today, an enormous amount of data is collected about players, teams and matches .. the problem is with the willingness of clubs and coaches to embrace the data and put trust in what it says. For many managers it is disorientating to be told the opposite of what feels right, and as a result (in the lower leagues .. which are ironically in position to benefit the most) data science is rejected.
Another important thing to understand is that it is rare that data will uncover a major finding, or hidden secret, that alone will yield an enormous change. Rather, it is a matter of small percentages; which, if paid attention to can yield significant and meaningful differences over time. Case in point: Last season, after having played 46 matches, Wolves lost out on a playoff spot on a four goal goal difference, made even more “mere’ by the fact that Ipswich scored only scored two more goals, and conceded two fewer. Or looking further up the table, Wolves only lost one more game than Watford, but drew four more games .. both relatively small gaps that are the domain of statistical analysis and performance-based selection and improvement.
To his credit, Matthew Benham has already achieved some notable success with this strategy with his other team Midtjylland, and in Brentford, he has similarly been very open about putting his money where his mouth is.
The lesson for Wolves is very simple .. the data doesn’t lie. Better players do cost more money .. you can’t mount a serious promotion campaign with a team built on thin air and the best of intentions. You also have to be open to what the data tells you in terms of player performance .. you can’t keep starting games sluggishly, playing sloppily, not putting in enough effort, giving away easy goals, and having to constantly come from behind .. and yet expect to finish the season in at least the top 6, basically on a wing a prayer.
If the players are putting in the effort but not getting the results, that’s one thing .. but if they are not, then that points to just one thing: the Manager, whose job it is motivate and raise the spirit of the team, in order to make the most of its available talent.
I, for one, would love to know what that Wolves data shows .. there is “(old) gold in them thar hills” .. fortune favours the brave who are willing to accept what the data shows .. and most importantly, to do something about it!
Quick post script .. the biggest question of all .. which data can help with .. is to ask “What is going to change? .. What is going to be done differently?” .. Is the plan to continue based on a set of strategies and practices built on past “success” .. or to look forward and start thinking and behaving differently, and do things that no one else is doing? After all, the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same things, and yet somehow expect different results.
Unfortunately, at this early stage of the season, Kenny and the Wolves are starting to sound like a broken record .. When what we need is something different ..
Very interesting Tiburon…
We seem a team reliant on a ‘wing and a prayer.’
Against Derby we had no cohesiveness.
The blatant unwillingness of the Board to back the team must filter through.
We need an owner who ‘loves’ the club and until we get one, performances are going to be unpredictable, for there isn’t any unity….
Hopefully Afobe can keep up his torrid start
Two good clean sheats and then the defence buckle and concede four against Derby, What?
If they’d kept a clean sheet they’d have won 2 0, surely, well maybe.
Ive got most of my predictions wrong so far, witch just goes to show what a difficult league the Champ is.
Brighton and Brum are the two teams suprising me and no doupht others, espesially Brum who i beleive have little in the way of finance, can they keep it up? Who knows, not me thats for sure.
Brentford have just posted a win against Rotheram, who are no mugs, they woud’nt be in this league if they where, none the less i’m going to predict a win again, maybe i should give this up as a bad job.
Based on form we really should put Brentford to the sword.
Doesnt really surprise me Brighton Brum and Reading top 3. I grew up in the era of Shankly, Revie, Clough Robson etc have always believed managers are more important than marquee signings. Same goes for moneyball really.
Nostalgia’s lovely ain’t it Colin. I don’t think even Cloughie, great as he was, could achieve now as he did then.
Yes you are right i suppose the championship is bit more of a level playing field.
Well, after a shambles of defensive errors again Derby on Sunday, I am going to imagine that they all got a rollicking and a boot up the backside.
I think we have enough to get goals, but will we keep it tight at the back?!
One step back 9Derby) and 2 steps forward (Brentford and Sat) would be progress.
At what point do young players with potential become experienced and therefore should move out of “they are going to be inconsistent phase”? I’d be interested for views is it half a season, a full season, two seasons?
I think we’ll just scrape a win
A straight win, no problem.
I see no reason why we shouldn’t get back in the groove tonight. Our defending on Sunday was truly awful but I’m sure Kenny will have had a word in a few ‘shell-likes’, and they’ll find themselves up against somewhat less able strikers.
Taking my 8 old year to his first game (and my first since Charlton away a few years ago!) and he thinks we’ll win 5-1 tonight so I’ll stick with his optimism. Let’s hope he’s right to make the 6 hour round trip more the worth while. Up the Wolves!
This is exactly the type of game that a season hinges on, an underachieving opposition starting to show signs of getting it back on track. We need to benefit ourselves with a win, ugly if needed, to boost confidence ahead of Saturday. A clean sheet is an absolute must.
After being outclassed by Derby a win here is essential.
We surely have to win this one
I just hope their manager hasn’t got the team playing in his own mould, or the match will be completely unwatchable.
I like your team selection Thomas, but I have a suspicion ALF will be dropped for Edwards if he’s fit; we’ll look dreadful playing 4-2-3-1 and then Dangerous Dave will silence his critics once again with a late winner.
Unfortunately Chris, Dangerous Dave will never silence his critics.
He could score a hat-trick in the play off final and still be slated by some for a missed pass.
Based on data analysed by my ZX Spectrum….
Moneyball sounds like a FIFA rebrand
I cannot see anything other than a comfortable win for us.
If we can put 2 against Derby, we can do it against Brentford also.
No error in defence, and simply 2-0. Why not?
Tim Spiers’ video update on the E&S noted that KJ said the players returned to training in good spirits – they’re a good bunch of lads. Personally, I’d be hoping for a bit of anger at the errors and determination to put it right in the next game, delighted though I am that they are a ‘together’ bunch. So I’ll put it down to media sparring rather than reality and trust that we get two goals as good as those on Sunday and a tightened up defence. If we don’t get a good result, I predict woe and thrice woe on the blog.
I think this game will finish 1-0 and could go either way. Fingers crossed it’s our way.
A return to wining ways tonight. We need a ‘Fulham’ type performance to get us back on track, hopefully that will happen tonight.
Can’t see much changing in the line up from Sunday. I thought Wallace looked ok and will get better with more game time. Coady in for Price maybe, though he needs to step up and take control in midfield and perform like he did for the first few games he played.
Onwards & Upwards
It’s wining ways every night for me and SuWolf (AKA the PMDG’er).
I hope it doesn’t turn out to be a return to whining ways though.
Sorry about that. Your typo made me chuckle.
Gud greef! And me wiv an O levil in Englis has well!
🙂
For Moneyball see CAD (Computer Aided Dispatch) American designed as I suspect Moneyball to be.
I spent 33 glorious years with Staffordshire Ambulance and then about 20 years ago we bought into the Ambulance service version of Moneyball. Take shed loads of paramedics off the road, stuff them into an environment the detested and make them number crunch for the previous 10 years of Emergency and Urgent cases.
Apply this Moneyball style to a fantastically productive Ambulance region and let the computer predict where to base the Ambulances on stand by for an Emergency call due in the next few minutes.
Law of averages say some of it will work, but it doesn’t factor in human beings and the buggarence factor. It only takes one awkward person somewhere in the system to not perform and it all goes pear shaped and you end up working for the worst performing Ambulance service in the area. Then some Government Herbert decides this looks a plan so he forces all 13 regional Ambulance services to adopt CAD / Moneyball principles and hey ho, Ambulance service FUBAR.
Let’s apply this principle to Wolves, look at the last two years data and analysis, lots of games won in Div1 and last year a reality check, although all records were broken in Div 1 we are now a team struggling. For answer see buggarence factor. Chasing the star of Div 1 Leon Clarke, Persisisting with Sagbo, Lee Evans. Now include Jez Moxey who held court over the amazing Stoke, under achievers of the Centurt, he employs the same methods here and lo and behold we end up in the same vein. It only takes minor mishaps and the plan is screwed, we don’t live in Utopia, (well maybe I do) but there is no easy fix for our bad back. We need to get backbone, resolution and some Gonads and get stuck in, as said on the blog earlier we were’nt beaten by a better team we gave in all too easily again.
I’m going to do what I said I would not.
Beware of what you wish for, Moneyball sound right up Moxeys street the language sounds the same.
For Moneyball see CAD.
I did what lots of players will do under the system, I took the money and ran 3 years early retirement, now I’m a happy Chap, don’t spoil it again, let me watch good honest competitive football without the electronic interference from bean counters. Poos Sir Jack, him and Howard Kendall must be banging their heads up agains the pearly gates.
Wolves 4
Brentfordwoodshire 1
4-1? Shirley not.
Score draw for me. Kenny looks a different man in that interview no spring in his step. Need to win but like you say will only lose again Saturday
…got to start winning again.
I’m reversing the score from Sunday, for no particular reason
Kenny Jackett, if he’s nothing else, is an honest manager.
He accepts when we are beaten by a better side. He doesn’t continually whine at refereeing decisions (take note Big Sam) and he tells it like it is.
His criticism of our defence was spot on, including the bit about not closing down on attackers on the edge of the area.
“You need to get out, you need to block”.
Which makes it even more unbelievable that we sold Richard Stearman.
Whatever you say about the man – and there’s been a lot said on this blog, not all of it flattering – he would throw his body in the way of everything that was aimed at the goal.
He would be the first one in to block a shot and he wouldn’t turn his back on the ball.
Because of his attitude, his leadership in defence and because he wore a lot of goal bound shots, we never knew how many goals he prevented.
Now we are beginning to find out.
I think we’ll win tonight though, and we had better win on Saturday too, or my advanced data analysis department indicates that I shall demand my money back!
I’m sure you know a lot about football DG, but one thing is for sure. You don’t have to be a football genius to know we shouldn’t have sold that nice Mr Stearman.
My guess is that at least 99.9% of contributors to this blog could have told M&M that before the dirty deed was done.
Footballing reasons my arse!!!
Being a fan who was content with the Stearman sale (and still am) it saddens me that we did not replace him though.
I won’t talk about him though until the season ends, and then I will either raise up my hands and say I was wrong all I will put up stats on here to show that we had a better season without him.
That said, the prediction for tonight’s game:
Bet you WILL talk about him before season ends!!
lol. I always get pulled in to conversations. I am a sucker mate. I shall TRY not to though.
An uninspiring 1-1 draw I fear
I honestly don’t think we were that bad on Sunday, given the quality of the opposition. Their first goal was quality, the rest were down to poor defending/errors which I guess KJ will have been doing some work on. And I don’t think Brentford have anything like the quality of Derby having lost Gray and Dallas from their strike force.Similarly their defensive squad appears to be as young, if not younger, than ours. So, business as usual.
I think we’ll do well tonight ……. but who knows these days !!!
🙂 Ain’t that the awful truth.
I imagine this will be the story of our season. One or two players have a blinder against average opposition which we take three points off, but then we’re quickly back to earth against a tougher opposition who expose the lack of experience in our back four.
That said, you never know and it isn’t like any team in the Championship is especially vintage.
My statistical data and mathematical modelling software is predicting a bore draw. So Bollox to the theory I’m going large….
Narrow victory to get back on the wagon. UTW.
It’s no co-incidence that an escaped Lion from London zoo passed within 7 miles of 48 Blodwyn Terrace, Brentford. The home of Mr Eric Frog-Ovengloves.Luckily no harm came to anyone but the emotional distress could have a knock on effect on Brentford’s squad. This will be a decisive factor allowing Benik and ALF to cash in.
I think it might be a bit of a roller-coaster tonight but hopefully we’ll get the win.
We should win this one, but then equally it wouldn’t surprise me if we lost, so a draw it is then. There’s logic there somewhere.
Watched Brentford recently apart from striker lube very ordinary side,what’s happened to Pritchard,the sort of player we should be after on loan?Anyway if we don’t win this then,like the chairman,l will lose interest.For any glory to return to the mol,moxey and jackett have to go sooner rather than later.
Don’t get too high or too low over individual game results.
I’m sure we all agree we really need to win this one, and I believe we will. I’m optimistically hoping for a clean sheet too.
If we’re not getting the experience from defensive signings, then the young lads need that confidence back – after all, that’s our best hope of defensive consistency and clean sheets.
I was baffled by Wallace’s inclusion against Derby (don’t change the winning team). I felt that if anything he should have got the run out tonight and not against a strong Derby side. He struggled and he was always going to having not played for the first team at all since he joined. He needs minutes against the lower opposition in the league – and that means I feel he’ll probably get minutes tonight and perhaps from the start.
If we don’t win, then please take comfort in the fact that we don’t have a defender by the name of Andreas Bellend (actually, Bjelland but it’s a silent ‘j’ and it’s close enough)
Come on Wolves, Come on Kenny, Cheer up fellow fans!
I hope we win this one with a swagger and put the derby game down to a blip
feeling unusually optimistic.let’s build this fortress!
My preferred team to guarantee the 2-0 win would be;
Martinez
Iorfa Batth Hause Golbourne
Coady McDonald
VLP Henry Ojo
Afobe
Subs: Ikeme, Doherty, Price, Byrne, Edwards, Le Fondre, Enobakhare
However no doubt KJ will keep things more or less the same as Deby with just Coady in for Price and of course ‘Stephen Ward in disguise’ aka Dave Edwards accommodated somewhere in the starting XI even if it is goal!
Back to the clean sheets hopefully
We not as good as derby but better than Brentford.
Easy 3 points !!!
A sketchy win but beggars can’t be choosers.
Why is Price so often seen as the guy to be replaced? As statistical analysis has formed a major part of this blog, Jack’s stats are a match for anyone’s. Can’t see what he did wrong on Sunday and his partnership with Mac was being vaunted as the right midfield combination after the 3-0 wins.
Back to winning ways
“The idea that it IS possible to build a MEDIOCRE team by recruiting lesser known AND YOUNGER players with WHO DONT COST MUCH AND MAY COME GOOD is an exciting one and something that I WHOLE HEARTEDLY HAVE DECIDED IS GOING TO BE THE ORDER OF THINGS AT MOULINEUX WHILE IM IN CHARGE” so sayeth Mr J
Desperately need a win tonight, just to steady things again and restore some confidence
I’m really struggling with this forecast.Wolves have proved they can score goals and they can also put on a horror show.So is it going to be a three or four nil job or a nervous draw ? I’ve gone for the latter but am hoping for the former.
Back to winning ways (please).
…or 1-3, or 5-1, or 1-5 etc.
At this point it seems easier to predict who’s gonna win The Academy Award for Visual Effects in 2056 rather than what Wolves will produce tonight.
What else is new, eh?
Quick quick…. In time? Like the bloody lottery this.
A convincing performance please lads.
We can’t play like that again we made Derby look great so bounce back tonight and get a win COYW
oh dear, it’s all gone horribly wrong tonight.
0-2 in stoppage time. Thank you Steve Morgan. Thank you for ruining our club for years to come. Thank you. A weak and pathetic timid little Scouse git with less backbone than a jellyfish. Miserable? Yes. Angry? Yes. Depressed? Yes. Mad, mad, mad. Madder than Jock McMad, the madman of Madcaster.
I don’t know what to say mate. It’s a sorry state of affairs.
The words shower, of and shit seem somehow appropriate
We were so tactically inept KJ ..against Brentford yes Brentford bloody Brentford not Barcelona..
Back to misery..Morgans lack of investment shows but KJ just can’t manage the situation we are going to free fall at this rate…
Poorly coached..poor tactics .period.
Dark times, dark times….
No vision , no commitment, no tactics, no idea ,no hope !!!
Hee hee, ha ha, tee hee, ha ha ha, tee hee, lol.
If you don’t laugh you will cry.
Where were our strikers? You can’t win a game if you don’t score.
Where indeed?? Afobe apeared to be on the right wing / right midfield second half. You can’t make it up. Thank goodness we bought Byrne eh? He’s really improved the side. The guy is the very bedrock of our promotion push. We sold Stearsy to finance that one. Of course, we don’t need an experienced defender do we?
All this was so predictable when we didn’t strengthen in the summer. You reap what you sow etc etc. This season is a write off.
It’s simple. Price & Macca gotta play. This creates a system. Without a system & without Dicko we are a poor side. Coady was a headless chicken. Jackett got it wrong tonight. It really is that simple.
That is more than once now. He did not start with Ojo at Derby and Wallace was found wanting. He started without Price today and Coady was found wanting ………….. I am now starting to question his selections.
Absolute shite relegation beckons
There was a murder in Wolverhampton tonight. There were 18,000 witnesses but no-one will be charged. The main suspect has an alibi – “I was at home in Liverpool officer – it couldn’t be me.
This was a clinical , efficient and stylish demolition by Brentford-credit to them. They showed us how to play football and reminded us of just how far away we are from being able to play that way.
I have absolutely no doubt that KJ is correct when he says they are a great bunch of lads. But I also have no doubt that many of them are not footballers either. Mr Coady would be first on the list!
Shocking performance.
Unbelievable where was Price what is Jackett playing at starting to think he has lost the plot and it looks like the players have too.
I’m really believe we are in a relegation battle now and Jackett has brought this on him self in some respect by his tinkering.
Just when I thought I couldn’t get any more disheartened and depressed out the fate of OUR football club.
Unexpected result tonight, never saw that coming,but Brantford deserved the victory because we we’re so inept to say the least.
We looked so lethargic and avoid of any idea how to pass that thing they call a ball.
Last season when we lost at Derby we went on to lose five on the trot,but the worrying thing is we had a better side then with SAKO & DICKO.
Tonight this was our best side and bench so where we go from here God only knows.
Kenny’s got a real job on to turn this shambolic team around when Boro roll in.
KJ must keep Price in for coady as he’s lost his bite since his sending off.
Still think we need a fresh defender and striker asap that’s just to keep us afloat in mid table.
Sorry to say it but Afobe looks disinterested and I think he’ll go in Jan if we don’t improve.
IMO KJ’s gone out and spent little bits of money on young fringe players where he should have gone out and bought a bit of quality instead.
Time will tell,
Pissed off and off to bed.
I hate to say this but KJ is like the absent minded grave digger, he’s lost the plot.
He’s like the head scratching detective, he hasn’t a clue.
And the whole club seems like the Mary Celeste, totally lost at sea, no direction, no course to follow, totally doomed to wander endlessly.
Never has our name, The Wanderers, been more appropriate.
Relegation is rearing its ugly head……again
You can take the view that the players just arent ‘good’ enough and that is then pretty much the end of that.
But what about Brighton and other teams at the top ? For me the only real difference is that they have got Chris Houghton. Look at the CV’s. Kenny has got 2 promotions from the third division that is his happy hunting ground.
He was brought in as a safe pair of hands, a cheap option, an unassuming chap who would allow others to make the decisions. He has done well up to now but his luck has run out. The signs are the players have lost confidence in him and themselves. Is he the guru manager to re-inspire and re-organise a young team ? I doubt it.
Having said that there now doesnt seem to be the will or the leadership at the club to do anything about it.
Ive said a lot about KJ ..it’s not that this sort of performance and strategy hasn’t happened before ..its happend loads of times..it’s very repetitive..
He’s repetitive too….and his conclusive comments about what went wrong what we did blah blah all very well but he dies shite all about it …
We don’t insure against previous failings ie we give away an early goal (our current signature) or worse if we get one back we give one away again..poor Afobe just like Sako before…
On that subject. – I’m hanging Sako’s name on Morgan’s and Moxeys grave.. Still can’t get over it..
We need money.We need a trainer.
So it’s the ” the lesser” sides as well as the one’s knocking on the door of promotion, Kenny.
Choose your words carefully, they could be your last.
Plan B
Ikeme
Iorfa Batth, Hause, Goldie
Coady, Price
Macca
Afobe, ALF (Henry switching wings)