This is it. Here we are. Two from five.
A topsy-turvy, bonkers Premier League season that threatened to go right to the wire has done precisely that. Well, at one end of the table at least.
And with the permutations seemingly infinite, here’s my take on each side’s survival prospects.
Wigan
Roberto Martinez’s team will kick-off Sunday at the bottom of the pile, but arguably have one of the more favourable fixtures away at Stoke.
A draw could feasibly keep them up should Blackpool and Birmingham both lose, which isn’t unlikely, so they’ll fancy their chances.
My gut instinct tells me they’ll get a result and survive by the skin of their teeth.
Blackpool
No team has characterised this whacky season more so than Ian Holloway’s Blackpool and they’ll be the side that the overwhelming majority of neutrals are rooting for.
Despite a massive victory over Bolton, they remain south of the dotted line with Wigan breathing down their necks. Surely they can’t win at Old Trafford? Only Albion have come away with anything other than a defeat and even a weakened Man Utd side should be too much for the Seasiders.
I think a draw might be enough to keep them up, but I suspect they won’t get it.
Birmingham
Out of nowhere, Birmingham are suddenly knee-deep in the brown stuff. Losing at home to Fulham was disastrous, particularly with all four of the other sides picking up points.
They now find themselves needing a huge result at White Hart Lane or a huge favour from both Stoke and Man Utd.
I believe they’ll lose against Spurs, which means they’ll be relying heavily on others.
Blackburn
Blackburn start the day in the strongest position after picking up valuable draws against West Ham and, most recently, Man Utd. Every point is precious and those two results were huge for Steve Kean’s side.
A draw will almost certainly get the job done against Wolves, because only wins for Wigan, Blackpool and Birmingham would see them relegated in that scenario, which is highly unlikely.
They’ve shown some great resolve in recent weeks and I think they’ll get the point they need at Molineux.
Wolves
Buried and seemingly gone for good less than a fortnight ago, back-to-back wins have put Wolves in a strong position. We could only dream about having 40 points on the board prior to kick-off against West Brom but that’s exactly what Mick and the boys have achieved.
The only disappointment of course, is that despite our epic comeback the old gold are far from safe.
We might have done enough already but a big performance in front of our home crowd will get us over the line without the need for help from elsewhere.
Sadly, I fear we’re in for a long anxious afternoon because I don’t think we’ll beat Blackburn. I think it’ll end in a draw, which means our attentions will turn to White Hart Lane, the Britannia Stadium and Old Trafford.
Ultimately though, I think a draw will be enough for us. I would even go as far as to say we could lose and as long as it’s by no more than one goal, we’ll retain our Premier League status.
Final standings
I did the BBC Premier League Predictor and entered the following scores:
Man Utd 3 Blackpool 1
Stoke 1 Wigan 1
Tottenham 3 Birmingham 1
Wolves 2 Blackburn 2
If those predictions came to fruition, it would mean the final table looked like this:
So Blackpool and Birmingham are my two from five.
Who are yours?
It’s weird but, like you suggest, it actually makes no difference whatsover to our league position whether we draw or lose by one goal.
That could actually be a big incentive for us if the scores are level late on – we could push for the winner in the last 10 mins knowing we’ve nothing to lose.
It’ll require quick thinking on the day but hope Mick is on the ball on the day.
Tbf i dont care very much but mine are wigan and birmingham. I think united will let them off the hook and stoke will avenge their cup loss for thier fans to top off their season. Spurs will do the business they have to for the money even if they dont fancy the Europa League. I dont trust the red faced gum chewing gimp one bit, but strangly im not sure i want to trust him this weekend.
We are safe, i think! Stato says 25-1 against the drop. I see some bookies are even offering 11-1 and 10-1. Thats some outside chance really. We and Mick deserve it too. Wins against Chelski, City and the first beating of Manure, an away win at anfield, an unlucky draw away and a 3-1 win against the bus stop at home. Suddenly the season looks a good one and I have a lot of great memories, I thank the manager for that. We should all rally round him and the team when (and not if) it happens. Its been a tough and strange, as you rightly point out, league this season. My view is that with any many other managers we would not be where we are. Long may the best run we have had for 30 years continue!
Up the Wolves and Long Live the very reverent Super Mick!
I agree – Blackpool and Blues. Lets just hope in this very unpredictable season that the final day is very predictable!
Don’t count your chickens yet jezza, we are far from safe, and the team must be on their metal on Sunday, and go out to beat Blackburn to be sure of survival. We can’t rely on anyone to do the job for us, Spurs have been inconsistent recently, Blackpool are nutters who will really go for United, and who knows if Stoke will be up for it after the disappointment on the cup final. No one at Wolves can afford to be complacent! – Come on me babbies!!!!!!
“My view is that with any many other managers we would not be where we are”
Your right jezza we would be safe already
I agree Lee. Much as i would like McCarthy to be the next Alex Ferguson, whether we survive or not, I’m dubious as to whether he is an asset, or a liability
safe in the championship maybe and NOT! on the best run for 30 years. It amazing how people fail to remember that or read peoples posts properly as a result of thier poor memories!
Agree totally Jezza. People’s memories seem ridiculously short. McCarthy’s built a team from scratch, got us promoted, kept us up and now surpassed our points tally in the Prem. I genuinely dont think there’s any other manager we could feasibly have got who would have achieved that.
As infuriating as his team selection SEEMS, I think he’s proved right more than he gets it wrong. On an unrelated note I also like having a manager who doesnt come out and blame results on the ref (a la Pulis, amongst others) but blames it on himself and the team when it goes wrong.
It’s been a tough league to stay in this year, if he succeeds he deserves a lot of credit. Against Albion at home the guy sat next to me had a go at McCarthy for not bringing on Jarvis early enough. He exclaimed that Mick was a “f**ing clown”. We were leading 3-1 at this point. Barmy
Hoorah Super Kev and Long Live the very reverent Super Mick!
It’s simple – we have to beat Blackburn and then who really gives a flying fig about anybody else!
I’d like to see Blouse be relegated. They are a horrible team. I’d also like to see Wigan go and Blackpool stay up. With QPR, Norwich and Swansea or Cardiff in the league next year it will be (and no disrespect to those teams) significantly weaker than this season. Add to that the 2nd season syndrome for Blackpool and Newcastle and we should be relatively comfortable next year.
So beat Balckburn and we should be closer to being a established Premier League team once and for all!
Like the theory, but let’s see how that works out
i think wigan and blackpool stoke are to good at home as are man and a think blues will loose aswell, its going to be a case of who looses by the least amount staying up
Yes, I’ve also been playing with the BBC PL Predictor. It’s striking in how many scenarios Wolves can finish equal on points AND goal difference with another team, but in many of those instances we come out on top (presume it’s because we’ve scored more goals).
Anyway onto the question. I’ve gone all pessimistic after 2 wins on the trot. We can’t possibly make it three, can we? Surely Mick will drop Fletcher, just because he can? Nevertheless, even after predicting a loss for Wolves, I reckon the other sides have too much on their plate, so we still should stay up. My preddos are:
Man Utd 1 Blackpool 1
Stoke 2 Wigan 1
Tottenham 2 Birmingham 0
Wolves 1 Blackburn 2
Giving:
16. Wolves 40pts (-20 gd)
17. Blackpool 40pts (-21 gd)
——————————
18. B’ham 39pts (-22 gd)
19. Wigan 39pts (-23 gd)
20. West Ham
I hope you are right with this – would love to see Wigan and Blouse descend into the abyss!
For me it the Blues to go down as I just cannot see Spurs losing that game. As for Blackpool, sorry guys but even a reserve United team will be too good for you and Wigan… well they escaped last season but not this time. Stoke may be a little punch-drunk after the Cup final and may also be stunned again tonight but will want to finish the season on a high and I think they will, so sorry Wigan, down you go!
So finally to Wolves. Threatened with relegation nearly all season, playing 4-5-1 to suit Mick’s playing style and having a Championship defence with more holes than a colindar. But somehow the team has conjured some valuable points from out of the blue, back to back wins for the first time this season and a real opportunity to finally bury any relegation worries. Yes, I think they will do it, just, and by a 2-1 scoreline with that man Fletcher once again being the man to show McCarthy how wrong he’s been by playing Doyle instead.
So Birmingham and Wigan to go down for me (same opinion as Kowloon Wolf) and Wolves to see another PL season at Molineux only I hope that Mick McCarthy is rewarded with a ‘kick upstairs’ and a new man installed who knows how to motivate a team to win matches consistently and also selects players for their correct positions and not square pegs in round holes.
Wolves fans deserve someone to push the club forward because under so-called ‘Super Mick’ that will never happen, it is just not his destiny as his record to date clearly shows.
Another excellent and very professional post, Thomas. Just like the league, the quality of this blog has gone on right to the final match. It is the envy of many other club’s supporters and i’d just like to be the first to say thanks to you and Ben, in particular, for giving us all such a lot of fun again this season.I still think the prediction league’s a fix though.
And now for which three.The main worry is that this last round of games has a history of hugely unexpected results where form and ability count for nothing, so i think we are far from safe yet. Very strange things happen right upto the last minute of injury time, like the goalie scoring from a corner. And wasn’t there an occassion where a dog got on the pitch and was accredited with an assist!?
Having said that, on paper, the away teams couldn’t have harder games. Spurs really need the points, Man U are class at home(whoever plays) and Stoke always give 100% and i don’t see anything different on Sunday.
So i’m predicting they all lose which means we stay up even if we lose as well. I think a draw is the most likely result for us though.
It will all depend on goal difference then so i’m going for the two i’d like to see go down, Blues and Wigan who should really stick to rugby league.
Martin – I have to agree on the predictions league! As a small club punching above my weight in this division I have not been given the decisions on penalties, I was fined £20k for fielding a weakened team and have had players sent off when players from “other” teams in the league would have stayed on the field. I have received bullets through the post (return to sender address for Thomas), and was openly attacked whilst managing my prediction on my lap tap.
I can only conclude that Thomas has a time machine – blatent cheating in my book.
…..or else you may have to concede that our beloved Thomas really knows his onions.
Never – I come from the Mark McGhee school of management!
Thanks for the kind words Martin. As I’m sure Ben will agree, it’s no great chore. We absolutely live for it.
The Prediction League is a fix, you’re right.
You’re all obviously at an unfair disadvantage with me playing.
:p
Fuck knows how this is going to end up. Lets just finish the job “A-Team” style….MM = Hannibal……Ward = Howling Mad/Still Shit Murdock….erm….BA = now thats an easy one……Face…I’ll go Doyle but I’m open to suggestions.
One fact is I’m putting an Ayrton on Wolves and Blackburn to get relegated. Its my hurt money if you like.
Got to agree with Martin – you’ve really “put a shift in” this season guys. Its a bloody big commitment and its easy to pop on a comment here and there but to really get the juices of the fans going, keep the topic fresh and thoughful it takes some doing.
Sounds like a letter to Points of View now….
Thanks for the kind words mate. Much appreciated.
I like your A-Team analogy. I just hope MM actually has a plan and it comes together.
Sorry for the delay in replying to you Martin and TATD. That’s lovely to hear stuff to read and makes it all worthwhile. This site is testament to Thomas though. He’s like the Arsene Wenger of blogging…new fresh approach to blogging. Im like Steve bould, offering uncouth contributions within his overall vision, offering some one paced attrition with the best will in the world!
Id be lost without this blog.
Oh, ive also put 20quid on us to go down in ‘hurt money.’ !
Now is not the time for this discussion (as we all need to concentrate on crawling over the finish line on Sunday!)
But… I would be very interested in a blog post 22 May on peoples views on where we go from here with “Super Mick” or “Muppet Mick” depending on your view point!
Come on lads – one more win will see us home. Who would have thought we would even have a chance even a couple of weeks ago? It would be a real “great escape” if we do manage it.
And I dont even dare to dream the dream of Blues being relegated! I am not one of these “I like to see all the midlands football teams do well” tossers that called up WM after we spanked Albi*n! I dont care, I personally would like to see the smug ‘we won the cup’ smile wiped off their faces – especially as the Blues fans I know have been giving it large about our impending relegation all season! Championship + Thursday nights on Channel 5 – no thanks, I’d prefer the Prem for at least another season! With there financial issues St Andrews will be a different place next season if they do go down.
Just read that Steve Kean’s been nicked for drink-driving and their full back Gael Givet’s transfer from Marseille is under investigation by the FA. Hardly a settled camp ahead of Sunday!
Still have nightmares about being sat in the away end at Ewood in December watching Jason Roberts of all people give Berra a torrid afternoon….here’s hoping Jody or Mancienne can do a better job stopping him win long ball after long ball
Looking at the fixtures the team I fancy the least this weekend is the Blues. Tottenham have the most at stake (if you ignore Blackburn, obviously) and will want to win to secure fifth place.
However, despite their FA Cup loss, I wouldn’t relish a trip to Stoke on the last day to secure survival, so reckon Wigan look shakey.
As odd as it sounds, I reckon Blackpool have got one of the better fixtures. I know Fergie has been threatened with a fine if he puts out a weak side on Sunday, but he’s so stubborn it wouldn’t surprise me if he stuck the tea lady up front with Bebe (she’d probably be the better player) just to p*ss off the FA. On this basis, I reckon Blackpool could very well come away with at least a point.
As for us, a third win on the trot is definitely do-able. If we go out all guns firing I reckon another quality first half could blow Blackburn away. However, with so much riding on this I reckon it’ll be a bit more cagey and both sides would ultimately take a draw (if the others lose, obviously). Let’s hope nerves don’t get the better of anyone and we don’t see any Zubar-esque cock-ups.
Having just done the BBC predictor myself, it looks like Blues and Wigan going down. As long as it isn’t us, I don’t really care.
My predictions for Sunday:
Wolves 2 – 2 Blackburn
Stoke 2 – 2 Wigan
Man Utd 1 – 1 Blackpool
Spurs 3 – 1 Blues
Thomas, what does your dad think? I go with whatever he says!
Well, despite his trademark bleak outlook, even he’s struggling to see a way we could get sucked down now.
I’ve convinced myself Spurs and United will do the business.
You could play both of those fixtures ten times and I’m pretty sure neither Blues or Blackpool would get a win, so I’ll be sobbing my luckless heart out on Sunday if they defy the odds at our expense.
I am more worried about United mate. Ask Neil Warnock about his experiences. West Ham beat them 1-0 on the final day to send Sheff Utd down if memory serves.
I worry that Utd have been so average all season, they are actually going to be very beatable if they play Gibson and co.
Hmm!
I hate it when Warnock pipes up about that Ben. Everyone seems to forget they lost at home to Wigan
Hi mate. Yeah, good point well made. Well, great point in fact, seeing as I forgot it completely!
I read Warnock’s book and don’t mind saying I really like the bloke. Love his man management and some of the stories he told.
He actually wrote in the book that he wouldn’t ‘piss on Gary Megson if he was on fire.’ A great read, even if you hate the man. Loads of anecdotes.
Dad always said we should have got him around the McGhee era, while Warnock was toiling away at Plymouth / Huddersfield.
I think he might have been right looking at the work he has done, but hey ho!
Anyway, back to the point I was making…He was more peeved with Rafa Bentiez when he fielded a scratch team of losers away at Fulham, ahead of their Champions League final (I think)
So I guess the scenario was the same as we face with Man Utd v Blackpool, but some of those names on Bentiez’ team sheet were pretty random!
But it all goes back to your point…It is up to the team in question to win. No point harbouring a temporary love-in for some team who doesn’t give a toss about us!
I’m really worried Blackpool and Wigan are going to get results, and think we need to beat Blackburn.
Make it three wins on the run, is that possible for us?
I reckon that blouse will lose at the lane, wigan RFC will feel the wrath of the defeated cup finalists and gain no points, and the seasiders will capitalise on the weakened team and party atmosphere at trafford park to escape with a point (there will be a late equaliser but I haven’t decided who will score last yet).
The only one I can’t predict is our result. If we score first and early then Molineux will be nearly as loud as it was for our last home game, and blackburn chicken packers will be up against it. If they score first the john ireland whingealots will start their murmuring and the ensuing minutes will pass like hours in a dentist chair as we lump unsuccessful long balls up to ward and fletch and end up nervously checking the other results come full time.
So touch wood and all that but i’ve been saying we’ll stay up all season, and i’m not gonna change tack now. We are 2-3 players away from being a decent top flight outfit, and i really hope MM isn’t let down by the likes of van damme this close season so we can push on to mid table obscurity next term and shut the moaners, sorry realists, up for good (although if we do stay up then realists doesn’t really fit so well does it?).
UTW
a good analysis sleachy happy with that! Long Live Super Mick!
I’m a Steve Bull wingealot actually!
yeah i know, but it wasn’t called the Steve Bull back in the days of ALOB and JIWAL!
PAH!
Talking of ALOB, is it still printed and if it is does anybody know if they ship internationally?
I believe it’s still printed, although I personally haven’t purchased a copy for a very long time.
There are some contact details on their basic site:
http://www.aloadofbull.co.uk/
If you email the guy I imagine he’ll sort something out for you if you pay the additional costs involved.
Interestingly I contacted them about a year ago to see if they were interested in a joint venture but was roundly told to jog on. Shame really, I think we could have helped each other out.
Appreciate it, cheers Thomas!
Jed, me and Dad have got the first 50 copies of ALOB somewhere! I used to love JIWAL. I remember the A****n DOWN! special edition when they got relegated to League 1. I need to dig them out for some blogging ideas!!
I used to get it all the time when I was a season ticket holder but moving here killed it for me. I used to love the cartoons and I have the last issue I bought, issue 137, on the wall of my office.
The Canadians I work with don’t get the humour, in fact the Canadians I work with don’t get humour full stop.
To digress slightly, ice hockey rules this part of the world and these people here are apparently passionate about it. I try and compare it to our beautiful game. They are amazed when I tell them about all the songs we sing, here they have one song, its the same song for all their sports and this is it “Go (insert team name here) Go” and repeat – its about as interesting as the people who sing it!
How I long for weekends down the Mol!
I’m going for a 2-2 with Blackburn. We both need to win to be sure, but will both concede.
Spurs and Stoke to win and Man U to draw or lose as B’Pool will probably play like men possessed.
COTMW
This season every time I have thought we would escape, there has been results that have made me doubt our ability to stay up.
Optimistically, Birmingham and Blackpool/Wigan for me.
Pessimistically, us and one other.
My doubt is more with the manager than the players.
If we stay up and are to progress changes in management are needed.
Don’t underestimate the ability of teams to get results on the final day when they need them, see West Ham at Old Trafford. I think Wigan will get at least a point. Blackpool will put up a scrap in a game that could see 36 goals, and Spurs have drawn many at home recently.
However, I reckon:
Wolves 1-1 Blackburn
Stoke 1-2 Wigan
Man Utd 3-2 Blackpool
Spurs 2-0 Blues
Meaning Blackpool and Blues go down
As a pleasant aside from the serious stuff, what does everyone make of these two additional items of business:
1. Player of the season. Who gets your vote? On paper, I can’t see anyone other than Jarvis getting it, but are there dark horses I’ve overlooked?
2. New home kit unveiled tonight (http://www.wolves.co.uk/page/News/0,,10307~2362008,00.html). What’s everyone hoping for? I don’t like the current top (as you might recall from a previous blog post) so hoping for an improvement this time.
One point I would make about kits, is that I think it’s abysmal the team change the home shirt every season now. Ridiculous.
It’s gotta be Jarvo. He’s not the hardest worker in the side, he’s not been the most consistent, but he did deliver one of the proudest moments of the season when he played for England, and he deserves recognition.
The article says that the new design is pretty much all gold. fantastic, as long as they mean actual gold (the shirt with the town crest from the mid 90s, for example, was gold) and not the current orange abomination. I have a brummy man ure mate who always bangs on about our ginger kit. not good.
Absolutely agree about it being gold and more than that it should be old gold for pete’s sake. That is our unique colour and we should be proud of it and make the most of it. Ok it may not be the first choice of colour for leisure wear but neither is that hideous orange. If i ran the club i would insist we wear our proper colours, end of.
Anyone else getting palpatations every time we are mentioned on TV?
My arse is squeekier than Joe Pasquali under a Vanessa Feltz fanny fart – made of helium.
Part of me is dying to know the result on sunday, part of me can’t bear to find out. Although I am desperate to get to the weekend and get the match done, I’m also aware that’s it then till August, so kind of don’t want it all to end so quickly.
I tried explaining all this to my mrs last night as we were going to bed and she said i need to work on my pillow talk.
my arse is squeakier than recording of a eunuch mouse singing alvin and the chipmunks which is being played back at high speed.
My arse is squeekier than Joey Swash (King of the Jungle) playing a nose flute while an anaconda bites his spuds on a Bush Tucker Trial. In the dark.
That’s not as sqeeky as yours Sleachy, but the best I could come up with.
I think there is a new blog in this, entitled ‘ How squeeky is your arse.’
Is it Ryan Giggs squeeky? Ewan McGregor squeeky? Or Orville the Duck squeeky as Keith Harris instructs Cuddles the Monkey to shit over a glass card table while Orville is glued beneath.
mine sounds like alan ball having an asthma attack
New kit’s out, those of you wanting old gold will be disappointed. Not sure about the black line across the front either.
http://www.twitpic.com/4zcv5k
Thanks for that Rich. I’ve been waiting for it to come in.
I’ve stuck a post straight up.
I like it but I don’t like the crayola style scribble on the front. I’d like to see long sleeve version.
It’s hard being an atheist at times like this. Imagine 5 minutes to go Wigan and Blackpool both a goal up Wolves drawing nil nil. Where does one turn in an indifferent universe governed only by the laws of quantum physics. Here’s what happens. Fletcher in the left back position dispossess a Blackburn forward and passes the ball to Henry who with a fine display of ball control beats four players (3 from Blackburn plus Stephen Hunt) and releases Jarvis down the wing. Jarvis comes inside and touches the ball to O’Hara who pauses for at least 2 minutes before seemingly passing the ball into space when out of nowhere comes Ward who without breaking his run strikes the ball past the despairing diving keeper then runs to the south bank removing his shirt to reveal the legend FOCFH tattooed on his chest.
The whistle blows. God’s in his heaven and all’s right with the world
that’ll do nicely!