A few months back, I was contacted by Paul Tomkins, author of various publications (including this superb blog) about his beloved Liverpool.
He was putting together a new book, this time not just about the goings-on at Anfield, but the Premier League in general and more specifically, the relationship between spending big and achieving success.
I was asked to write a short piece, giving my opinion on the players Wolves brought during the 2003/04 and 2009/10 Premier League campaigns.
The book, titled ‘Pay As You Play: The True Price of Success in the Premier League Era’, has just been released, which includes a section about Wolves containing the article I wrote.
Although my contribution was minuscule, it’s an honour to be included in such a well-researched and highly insightful piece of work, which has already been recognised by esteemed football writers Gabriele Marcotti, Jonathan Wilson and Oliver Kay.
I cannot recommend this book highly enough. It centers around data called Current Transfer Purchase Price (CTTP), which uses a formula to level-out the amount of money clubs have paid for players since the inception of the Premier League.
So for example, Wolves paid Sunderland £1.75 million for Jody Craddock back in 2003, but his CTTP value is £3.5 million, meaning the 2003-model Jody Craddock would be worth £3.5 million in 2010.
I hope that somehow makes sense.
Anyway, you can buy the book on Amazon or visit the official Pay As You Play website to learn more.
Here’s the introduction to my article, to give you a taster:
In 2003, Wolves were promoted to the Premier League for the first time in their proud history. A 19-year absence from England’s top tier was finally at an end thanks to a resounding 3-0 play-off final victory over Sheffield United.
With Sir Jack Hayward’s millions and the riches that come from being part of supposedly the greatest league in the world, the supporters expected major investment and extended residence amongst the elite.
The club, unfortunately, had other ideas and unwisely went about populating the squad with a collection of unknown Johnny foreigners and Premiership has-beens.
Needless to say, Silas and Oleg Luzhny feature prominently after this intro.
Thomas, isn’t linking player values to inflation (RPI) incredibly simplistic?
The income that clubs receive from TV companies is a much more important factor than inflation is for example.
Great accolade to be involved with an actual published piece of work though! Great stuff.
It’s far more complex than just inflation.
My bad for not explaining very well, perhaps I need to refine that.
They actually use average transfer price for each season to determine a player’s equivalent value.
So for example, Stan Collymore cost Liverpool £8.5 million in 1995. That year the average transfer price was £1.56 million.
By 2008, the average transfer price was £5.35 million, making Collymore’s equivalent value skyrocket to £28.5 million.
That example is straight out of the book itself.
It’s quite a smart way to do things.
….and yes, a great accolade, but one I didn’t realise I was getting until the book dropped through my letterbox.
I probably should read the book before I comment. But, surely there are numerous other intangibles other than the price that have to be taken into account when valuing a player?
Any club with money inevitably pays over the odds. We are seeing that with Man City now, but it was also the case with Blackburn and Chelsea. We even saw it with Wolves when the Golden Tit was in full swing. I’m pretty sure that Mark Hughes (or anyone else) didn’t think that Lescott was worth £22m, but money is no object to Man City, so the fee is pretty irrelevant. He could have very conceivably gone elsewhere for half of that amount.
Also, clubs have different needs. A player costing the same amount can be more valuable to one team that another. How much would you pay for a decent left back now? £5m spent on a left back for us would represent better value for money than West Brom buying the same player, as they have Nicky Shorey and we have Stephen Ward.
I can totally see what the book is doing and the premise is good, but I’m not convinced that it’s quite as simple as mathematics. I could well be wrong though.
Well done on getting in there though. A very well deserved accolade.
I’m just happy to get my comments published on this blog!!!!