Just one point outside the European places with the second-worst goalscoring record in the league

Bruno Lage’s men currently sit eighth in the Premier League table, just one point behind Spurs in the final European place and only two points adrift of Europa League qualification. They have the best defensive record outside of the top four, with only Chelsea and leaders Man City having conceded fewer goals. Title contenders Man City and Liverpool have only managed to get away with hard-fought 1-0 wins against Wolves.
Lage has put together a team that is very hard to beat and which teams simply don’t want to play against. It would be difficult to describe the first half of this season as anything but a stellar job by the new man in the dugout. However, with the Portuguese supposedly brought in to bring more excitement and goals to Molineux, why is he struggling to make good on that promise?
Right now they are not a team that makes neutral fans clamour for the live streams in order to see them play, but why is that?
Well, only bottom side Norwich City have scored fewer than Wolves’ 13 goals from 18 Premier League games. While that doesn’t seem to matter in terms of results, because the defence is so solid, it doesn’t make for the most entertaining product.
Nuno famously had trouble getting goals out of this squad, and switched to four at the back last season for a short period to try and solve the problem. They conceded too many and he had to revert back to the usual three.
Bruno Lage has been consistent with three at the back but he did try playing a higher line at the beginning of the season in an attempt to introduce a more goal-friendly approach. In the first three games of the season, they outshot Leicester, Spurs and Man United, while enjoying a healthy amount of possession in each game, but chances weren’t taken, and they ultimately lost all three matches 1-0. The Portuguese realised he’d be lucky to get one goal a game from his attacking players and thus pragmatically decided to play a more deep-lying, compact style. It yielded results, with Wolves losing only four of the following thirteen matches.
Sitting a little deeper has clearly paid dividends for the Wanderers but how long can the side rely on its defence to be consistently solid without the attacking players chipping in with a few more goals at the other end? With a congested festive period upcoming, and injuries likely on the horizon, probably not that long. So why aren’t they scoring?
One key problem is that most of their attacks start from deep, and it’s much more difficult to create good chances against a team that is set with everyone behind the ball. This is something which teams like Man City have become experts at, but without the players they have, and the depth of their squad, it’s difficult for a team like Wolves to emulate that.
They start from deep because, according to Fbref, they are second in the Premier League for pressures in their own defensive third, but the bottom of the league for pressures in the opponents defensive third. More often than not they win the ball back on the edge of their own box and then build their attacks from there, as opposed to a team like Liverpool who wins the ball high up the pitch and then only need two or three quality passes to be in a strong goal scoring position.
Lage has said he wants to play a higher line and win the ball higher up the pitch but it’s not easy and he’s right. Doing so would leave his defence exposed. To press high, he’d probably want to switch to four at the back in order to have that extra body in a forward position in the press. The obvious problem is that Wolves would be more likely to get caught out. There are some clamouring for a new centre back in January, one with immense pace and positional understanding. While it’s difficult to fault Coady, Kilman or Saiss, as they’ve all been sublime this year in this system, it’s probably true that to play a higher line they’d benefit from new blood in that area.
However, they may want to think about investing in the real problem area, up front. While Wolves still aren’t creating an abundance of chances when compared with their rivals, they’ve actually improved in this area compared to last season, but aren’t reaping the rewards. Their overall xG of 17.7 isn’t great and puts them 14th in the Premier League by that metric but it’s an improvement on last season. The biggest issue for them is that their attacking players just aren’t taking enough chances. They don’t have deadly forward players on whom they can rely on to get on the scoresheet, and that is the major concern for Lage.
Hwang Hee Chan has chipped in with four goals, Raul Jimenez with three, and the others have been scored by defenders or holding midfielders. Wing backs Nelson Semedo and Rayan Ait-Nouri, as well as other attacking players like Adama Traore and Joao Moutinho have failed to put the ball in the net.
So whether it’s bringing in a world class centre back to give the team the confidence needed to push up onto the half way line, or signing one or two potent attacking players, January is sure to be a pivotal time for the club. Without those new investments, it’s difficult to see how long Bruno Lage can keep up this balancing act. For now, they’re compact and solid and getting results, but to be consistent across the season they really need to score more goals.


