With Wolves having virtually completed their summer business it is perhaps a good time to look at the likely options Mick McCarthy could go with for the 2010/11 season. There are decisions to be made in terms of personnel, but also in terms of formation…

Until December 2009 I would wager that McCarthy would have happily described himself as ”a 4-4-2 man”. Although he had operated with a variety of systems in the past, particularly during his spell as Republic of Ireland boss, we here at Wolves had been treated to 4-4-2 week-in week-out through his first three and a half years in charge. As Mick said recently however:

“I used to feel having one set way of playing in your mind showed a real strength in people because I used to think that’s how I did it. But I’ve come through that. You can’t keep playing the same way if you keep losing — you have to be big enough to change it.”

The signing of Steven Fletcher for around £7m was heralded by many as a clear signal that McCarthy intends to revert to 4-4-2 now that the pressure of a relegation battle is not upon his team – at least until September anyway! The theory will go that the players have had a taste of Premiership football and are ready to kick-on with a more attacking formation. I think it is more likely, however, that we will see a hybrid formation from Wolves this season, somewhere between 4-4-2 and 4-5-1. It is a belief based on a series of factors:

1. McCarthy will be conscious of the increased impact Matt Jarvis had when allowed to play slightly higher up the field in the 4-5-1 (actually more of a slanted 4-4-2 as discussed previously). As can be seen by Mick’s regular touchline promptings he has often been wary of how vulnerable the team is down the left-flank in a traditional 4-4-2 when Jarvis is left stranded upfield after an attack.
2. Wolves now have several players on the right hand side of midfield who are happy to tuck in to form a more solid midfield 3 when needed. Kevin Foley and David Edwards operated there with some success before Adlene Guedioura was given a chance in the role, scoring the winner against Sunderland on the final day.
3. Steven Fletcher played much of the first part of the 2009/10 season on the right-wing for Burnley, part of a growing trend (Jarvis included) of ”inside-out wingers” – players operating on the opposite wing to their strongest foot. It was not a great personal success for the player with the Turf Moor faithful lamenting the fact that he was not given the opportunity to play through the middle. It did, however, coincide with some of Burnley’s better results and we know how fond McCarthy is of guys who put in a shift for the cause. Given that Mick has already spoken of Fletcher’s flexibility, I would suggest this is already in his thoughts.

With Stephen Hunt and Michael Kightly not expected to be fully-fit for the start of the season I would expect, assuming no other injuries, Wolves to line up something like this against Stoke on August 14th:

Steven Mouyokolo and Kevin Foley will be pushing hard for starts but, particularly against Stoke with their expected aerial bombardment, it would seem likely that Jody Craddock and Ronald Zubar will retain their places. Jelle Van Damme also happens to be remarkably strong in the air for a full-back and will surely come in at left-back. David Jones’ strong finish to the season puts him in the box seat ahead of Nenad Milijas in midfield, with the Serb offering an option from the bench alongside the likes of Sylvan Ebanks-Blake.

Whilst I would expect Michael Kightly to get his opportunities from the bench this coming season, the interesting shift in system may come when Stephen Hunt returns to full fitness around October time. Of course, as a left-footed winger, Hunt may be seen as a direct challenger to Jarvis. He is, however, also comfortable operating from the right-wing and it will be interesting to note whether he will be threatening Steven Fletcher’s place in the starting eleven or if he will be challenging for one of the midfield positions. If Wolves are playing away from home against a strong side, it would not be a shock to see Hunt and Jarvis playing wide in support of Doyle with a solid central midfield three. This is, after all, more of an attacking line-up than we saw for much of the second half of last season with Foley operating on the right-wing. Hunt’s return to fitness seems likely to coincide with a run of games from mid-October against Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd and Arsenal (the probable top four) so it would be understandable to see him come in for Fletcher at some point during this run of games.

The real intrigue of course, would be if McCarthy felt able to play Hunt and Jarvis in support of both Doyle and Fletcher in a clear 4-4-2. This is the sort of attacking line-up that many fans want to see. I suspect it would be something that could actually happen if and when Mick is feeling confident that his team is stronger than the opposition – at home to Bolton on November 13th or away to Blackpool on November 20th perhaps?

The 2010/11 season is a fascinating one for Wolves and it is difficult to overstate the importance to the club. Not only would relegation be a huge blow in itself and bring the usual problems of the team being broken up but it would also surely see the shelving of the club’s stadium expansion plans. As such there is more pressure than ever on Mick McCarthy to get his tactics spot on… expect the 4-4-2 / 4-5-1 debate to continue.

Adam Bate – Ghostgoal

The holding midfield position is an unattractive role. It is rarely filled by a player who scores goals. They don’t even try killer passes. And yet it is a key position in the modern game, so much so that this World Cup is seeing many sides operate with two functional stoppers in a 4-2-3-1 formation.

England, however, bucked the trend by fielding Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard centrally in a two-man midfield against USA. One of the criticisms of that partnership is their unwillingness to concentrate on ball retention – simple passes to team-mates that keep things ticking over and are an important part of a successful side at the highest level. Gerrard plays with Mascherano and the much-criticised Lucas filling the role at Liverpool while Chelsea have Mikel and Essien with Lampard at Stamford Bridge.

In 2002, England went with Nicky Butt in the holding midfield role at the World Cup. He had an impressive time, with Pele even improbably naming him as his player of the tournament ahead of the quarter final with Brazil. In 2006, Owen Hargreaves was entrusted with the job and was England’s official Player of the World Cup, earning the FIFA man of the match award in the quarter final defeat to Portugal. Let us hope Gareth Barry can provide a similar base for our stars to play from in 2010.

Wolves have their own player in this position, the captain himself, Karl Henry. He has come in for criticism – ‘the crab’ is one of the kinder nicknames – and has been on the receiving end of the odd boo here and there. What he does do is keep hold of the ball as the statistics for the win over Fulham at Molineux show:

These passes may not be incisive through balls to Matt Jarvis or Kevin Doyle but the idea behind the role is that these passes find the full-backs in space or perhaps a more progressive midfield player who can create something. The problem for Wolves was not Karl Henry but more the fact that the players he passed the ball to, say George Elokobi, would then often play an aimless long ball, making you wish Henry had tried to do something himself! With further investment in players expected in the coming years, there is every reason to think Karl Henry will be a player that grows in importance and effectiveness as quality players are added around him. Indeed, as Gabriele Marcotti of The Times recently noted when speculating as to the strength in the depth in the Premier League, maybe there could be a role for our captain on a grander stage – Euro 2012 anyone?

* Segment from Gabriele Marcotti’s piece in The Times

Of all the chants directed at the home side at Molineux this past season, ”Just Like Watching Brazil” was not, as far as I am aware, one of them. Thirteen goals all season at home and only four since switching to a functional ’4-5-1′ around the turn of the year, it was a case of getting the job done and accumulating points.

So it is something of a surprise to discover an ally in the most extraordinary of places… the Samba Kings themselves, Brazil. Respected pundits have been queueing up to describe and analyse their unusual system. Such was the level of debate, The Guardian’s tactics guru Jonathan Wilson wrote a fantastic piece last summer discussing precisely what type of 4-2-3-1 it was Brazil were playing at the Confederations Cup that year. The popular ‘nerd nirvana’ website Zonal Marking,  that features some of the most in-depth tactical analysis ever seen, noted that their unusual system was a ”formation [that] cannot be described accurately by mere numbers”. The article was followed up some time later by a fascinating breakdown of the formation, analysing how it shifted from one perceived formation to the next.

Notation aside, most seem to view it something like this:?

Luis Fabiano is the sole spearhead of the attack. Robinho is operating in an advanced position on the left-wing but able to provide a goal threat cutting in on his right foot. There is no like-for-like player on the other flank where Ramires (or perhaps Elano) will be asked to tuck inside to help bolster the options in midfield. This enables the forward-thinking Maicon to power on into the wide open spaces down the right-flank. Centrally, there is disappointment in Brazil at the presence of both Felipe Melo & Gilberto Silva – two holding-midfielders with little creative spark who are entrusted to sit in front of the defence, snuffing out the threat from midfield runners and playing simple no-nonsense passes with an emphasis on ball retention. Gilberto, a former central defender in his youth, sometimes even drops into the back line, effectively forming a back three as the wide defenders almost become wing-backs.

At this point you may need to suspend your disbelief because, for some Wolves fans at least, this newfangled Brazil system will start to ring a few bells. One up front: Kevin Doyle. An advanced right-footed left-winger: Matt Jarvis. A tucked inside right-midfielder bolstering the midfield and allowing the full-back to advance: Kevin Foley & Ronald Zubar. Two out-and-out holding midfielders, one a converted centre-back capable of dropping back into defence: Karl Henry & Michael Mancienne.

To illustrate the point, look at the average position data for the visit of Manchester United to Molineux early this year:

Wolves, playing from left to right on this diagram, have Jarvis playing in almost as advanced a position as the centre-forward Doyle. Despite being described by most onlookers as a 4-5-1 there is certainly no sense in which could argue Kevin Foley on the other flank is playing anything like the same role for the team. The average position data shows him operating in a very similar position to Adlene Guedioura, giving an additional presence in midfield. This is allowing Zubar, the right-back (shown at the bottom of this diagram), to operate in such an advanced position he is actually further forward than Henry, Wolves’ most defensive midfielder in this game with Mancienne left on the bench. In other words, this is much like how Ramires shuttles infield freeing Maicon while Gilberto Silva covers him with a defensive brief.

Now I am not saying David Jones is Kaka (although on the diagram that is Jones playing just off Doyle in a surprisingly advanced midfield role) and if you’re not laughing at me already, you would be if I told you Jody Craddock was Wolves’ very own Lucio. However, when the various World Cup pundits write ad nauseam about just how unique and distinctive Brazil’s assymetrical formation is, you might want to forgive Mick McCarthy a raised eyebrow or two. He is never likely to be a coach hailed for his forward-thinking tactical innovations. Indeed, this very formation was stumbled upon more by accident than through design. And yet even so, while the quality of play we may expect to see from Brazil this summer is a far cry from the fare on offer at Molineux, the key elements of both formations are clear to see. You heard it here first - and probably last – ”it’s just like watching Brazil”!

Adam Bate – Ghostgoal