I received an interesting guest post this morning (from Wolves Blog regular Martin).
So I thought rather than just paste the blog onto the site, I’d do some digging into the statistics to see if I could conjure up a response to his question.
First off then, here’s his post:
Form is returning but should he start at Fulham?
Is Doyle really super?
Doyle is a genuine, honest good bloke.
And this, of course, is reflected in his play. He works hard, he tries hard and he plays for the team.
But he neither creates or scores enough goals.
Kev is, after all, a striker. And often with the formation we play, the only striker on the pitch. He is the one most likely to be in or around the box and he simply has to score more.
Four in total this season is just not enough. And when you watch him play it’s easy to see why. I don’t know whether he has got worse since he’s been with us, but his shooting is woeful. No power and often, as he drags it wide, no direction.
And when you’re a low scoring team, a low scoring centre forward is a luxury you can ill afford.
Secondly, and this is a lesser criticism, he doesn’t create enough. I agree he starts a lot of attacks from his initial control and finding a team mate but, for me, he doesn’t have an eye for an early through ball or killer pass.
It’s a criticism I would make of the whole team really and one of the main reasons we don’t score more goals. Kightly at his best can do it and, sorry about this Clive, I think Ward can be very direct when he gets forward. (Proper left back and Ward left midfield for me.)
Much as I love Kev, I don’t see how we can afford to play him as the sole striker. There just aren’t enough goals. And unless TC can come up with a way to play them both, Fletch has got to play. His goals speak for themselves.
The stats
Martin certainly isn’t the first person to ask questions of a striker whose stock has plummeted in the last 12 months, thanks to a loss of form and the emergence of Steven Fletcher as Wolves main talisman.
To come up with a slightly more scientific response, I’ve put together a table comparing Doyle’s and Fletcher’s statistics for this season taken from the EPL Index.
As we can see, with Doyle’s 4 goals from 1662 minutes on the pitch, he averages a goal every 416 minutes (or 4.6 matches).
Fletcher by comparison will get on the scoresheet every 156 minutes (or 1.7 matches).
By those numbers, Fletch could grab another 7 goals this season if he were start every game. Doyle would be nowhere near as prolific notching between 2 and 3 goals with the same number of minutes on the pitch.
And of course that margin could very easily be the difference between survival and relegation.
As for assists, we can see that Doyle outstrips Fletcher in this respect, by a score of 4 to 1.
What’s clear when you look at this statistic, as well as their comparative number of shots and passes, is that in advanced positions Fletcher is more likely to pull the trigger, whereas Doyle will more often try to find a pass.
By this reasoning, they should (as provider and scorer) form a decent partnership, but as we know, that hasn’t yet materialised.
Interestingly, on current form (their last 3 matches), Doyle has actually outperformed Fletcher, registering 2 goals and 2 assists, compared to Fletcher’s solitary goal against Albion.
So if TC is to play 451 at Craven Cottage on Sunday, he must choose between long-term superiority or immediate form.
It’s by no means a straightforward decision.
I wouldn’t like to make it.
In my opinion a performance like Doyle’s last match should earn him a place in the next first eleven line-up. Fletcher has to play himself into the first team, or Doyle has to play himself out.
And I guess with more time in the box rather than outside Doyle’s goal rate will increase. Doyle’s goals does almost always come from within the box – he’s a box player.
Fletcher should start every time for me he’s a natural goal scorer thing about Normal Stanley Fletcher is he’s a better all round player than Doyle Fletch is goob on the ground and very good in the air for his hieght I think more than half his goals have come from headers this season Doyle is crap in the air did you see his attempt at Newcastle 5 feet wide f the goal
You dont earn a place on one game, Fletch has been brillant all season without his goals we would be down already wake up mate I surppose you think McCarthy should still be in charge I dont understand Doyle fan clud he a shift worker yes but no end product and yes I know he’s on his own up front but as his goal tally shows it clearly not worked. TWO UP FRONT, ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK, TORA,TORA, TORA
Are u mental Fletch play himself in you muppet his goals have kept us in with a chance of getting out of this MESS, YES MESS TC. Ill remind you DOYLE 2 GOALS FLETCH 11 we have played with 1up front all season and look where its got us defend and hope we nick one has been the plan well it has’ nt worked and it never wil not in any league never mind the Premier theres an old saying ” the best form of defence is ATTACK. WAKE UP MUPPET ARE YOU REAL, PRATT
That’s what we’ve got competition for. One can not live on past achievements. If Doyle is going to hold on to his position he must score or deliver assists. Otherwise Fletcher come in and start the next match. Ideally I would have both in the team. TC has done fine so far. He took out Johnson because he felt he had too make some defensive changes when we lost 5-1. A good performance should be rewarded. An easy principle to keep everyone on their toes.
I believe that under Mick we didn’t push up enough to get the best out of Doyle. He plays up front on his own and therefore was far too isolated. He held the ball up well enough but when the rest catch up so too have the opposition and he isn’t able to do much worthwhile with it. he was better supported after half time at QPR when tactics were changed (apparently that was down to Connor’s influence) and as he was v Newcastle; the difference was plain to see. More of that please, Terry.
I think we need two up front…a good scoring partnership that create chances for each other and well as scoring on their own merit. In my opinion one is not enough for us.
Chris your talking sense mate we have 3 decent strikers surley two of them can play together but one of them would have to be Fletcher
What about the more pressing Doyle question: will he be fit for Sunday?
Regarding playing defence-splitting passes, there is no evidence at all of players being encouraged to do this by the coaching staff. There were, however, some pleasing signs of a passing style of build-up play at Newcastle.
Yes, 451 with Fletcher or Doyle up front and O’hara making the forward runs. That’s the only way of staying in the PL. A****N showed how well that works. It doesn’t matter what it looks like, it’s to kill the game, quick counter , nick a goal. Glad it’s not my call over who it should be. Let TC sort that out with whichever one is the sharper in training.
Doyle is simply not a very bright footballer.
He’s doesn’t know where or when to run, when to release it and when to keep it.
The fact he’s a very good footballer compensates for this but when the alternative is Fletcher it’s a no brainer for me.
Doyle has just been simply out of form for the season and its pretty hard to regain it wen u have to everything by urself as the sole striker with a mediocre team but hes coming into form now so play fletch and doyle both they will work fine together just give them time
Fletch has vision, in my humble opinion, that Doyler lacks- he may not be fit for Sun with his hamstring anyway…
I probably would have agreed until last saturday!! However, seeing Doyle play how he did, is a fantastic sight to see and he keeps his place if fit. If we can work out a way of working both in the team without being exposed defensively fine, but until then it’s one or the other.
Until we have supporting players who have pace, it doesn’t matter who plays up front, we are slow.
Ward is a carthorse, O’Hara a plodder, and Edwards, Milijas and Henry make those two look quick!!
No, our style cannot depend on counterattacks, we are just not quick enough throughout the team, with the exception of Zoobs, so TC will have to adapt the players and tactics to what he has, hope and pray for survival and get some pacey players in during the summer.
However, once again, whomsoever he picks needs our total, unwavering, committed support for the next 12 games.
I hope you read our blog, moxey, you sneaky fuck, because we are 100% behind our team, but not you.
FOJM
FOJMing til I die
I think I’d go with fletch. His ability in the air is such a useful weapon along with his ability to net goals. He just needs the service from Jarvis and O’Hara. That being said, Doyle does seem to link up well with O’Hara (think our two goals at swansea). Clearly that points us in the direction of 4-4-2 with both of them in. But as we all know, this leaves us horrendously open in the centre of midfield.
I would not like to be TC right now. Must feel like he’s walking on the edge of a knife…
I still think having O’Hara back in the team is such a bonus. His distribution at the Newcastle game was brilliant.
I should proof read my posts:
- I meant fletchers ability to net goals on the ground too
- I also meant our too goals at molineux against swansea
I think it’s great we’ve got two decent centre forwards to choose from. On recent form I’d go back with Fletch, if he’s fit, but it also depends on the teams we play against. I think TC could pick either without too much to worry about and swap after 60 if it’s not working.
Agree with Clive about pace – Jarvis is all we’ve got in this dept, we could do with a speedy foil to either Fletch or Doyler.
I think its all about confidence with strikers and perhaps playing where you like to play,and with doyler scoring who knows it could be the catalyst we need to pick up our season for the
final push.also i would play fletch up front also with doyler just in behind fletch,but i would’nt bet on it he may go for 1 up front.UTW.
for me fletch is the best forward we havd had for a long time, we need to have him playing every game. Doyle could play in a 451. We could go with henry and edwards sitting with kits,jarvo on the wings and doyle in behide fletch. Thats right no o’hara, if doyle isn’t doing it then swap them both… But Fletch to stay up top.
Having mulled over this issue for months and months, I have come up with the following thoughts based simply on my observations-no doubt stats would prove me wrong:
1. Flecther is better at converting free kicks and corners than Doyle
2. Doyle gets around more and offers some good defensive cover-Fletcher a lot less so
3. Doyle suffers when the 5 in the 4.5.1 play too far back they need to be closer to him to give him any chance of scoring or assisting (very obvious at Newcastle)
4. I love Doyle but he needs to be more selfish and a little less nice as a lone striker he is almost next to worthless (not his fault) he’s no Steve Bull!
5. Fletcher is better than Doyle as a lone striker but he still isn’t in a position to win us games consistently without the wingers being very far forward and some supprt from central midfield.
6. And now to the real issue, our defence is very weak so most of the midfield need to track back to support them thus leaving us very little chance to support a break and score.
7. Address the defence as weve been saying for 2 years and that will free up the midfield to attack goal as they eventually managed at some risk against rather toothless’ Newcastle and QPR in the second halves.
Whatever the Manager a big shake up is required on the pitch irrespective of our league next season. I hope TC succeeds and I’m happy to support him and give him a bit of time but either way our future remains in Morgans hands and that fills me with great unease.
totally agree with last paragraph. Moxey is not the problem IMO. If TC succeeds he’s nailed on for next permanent manager
If we are to play 4-5-1 then I would certainly try to find space for Doyle in a CAM position because I just think he has too much ability to be left on the bench and as we can see he IS a provider.
Simples play Doyle in the hole to the right of Fletch- get more about of both.
FO GREASEY
UTW
I’d play 4-5-1, Fletch up front and Doyle instead of Edwards
No-brainer! Fletch all the way for me. No room for Doyle in my favoured midfield five (Hammill, Henry, O’Hara, Milijas, Jarvis) either.
Just a crying shame that they (apparently) can’t play off each other too well, and (even if they could), our midfield keeps getting out-gunned when we play 442.
Games are won and lost in centre midfield. We are not good enough to play 4-4-2. Our defence is not stong enough and as a team we do not keep hold of the ball. My team would be
Hennersey
Zubar bassong stearman ward
Henry o hara
Kites doyle jarvis
Fletch
4-2-3-1
We would stay up with that team and formation
Like the system but don’t think O’hara would be much use back there and his goal scoring potential would be wasted. His lack of pace and mobility is a problem for me. I’d rather have the work rate of Edwards there especially with all the attacking options ahead of him.
I really think Kites is going to make a difference in the last 12 games. He’s got pace and mobility AND he can score goals. And he looks fitter at last.
So yeah your team but Edwards in for O’hara who would provide a goal scoring option from the bench.
You just picked my team. Well done being psychic.
A good post this one. I have just cherry picked a few comments below.
I believe that under Mick we didn’t push up enough to get the best out of Doyle
I think we need two up front…a good scoring partnership that create chances for each other and well as scoring on their own merit
Doyle is simply not a very bright footballer.
He’s doesn’t know where or when to run, when to release it and when to keep it.
Add to the above RJ who has no idea and is the worst money we have spent in a good many years.
Over the weekend I watched some games and in the above there are some other teams with the same problems, Strickers in the box with their back to the ball, how’s that going to work, defenders with no idea how to tackle, for all of them the money they cost their respective clubs and the wages they draw they are simply not good enough.
I think its already been mentioned but I’d love to see this:
Hennersey
Zubar – Bassong – Stearman – Ward
Kites – Henry – Edwards – Jarvis
Doyle
Fletch
Two fairly pacey wingers, henry and edwards to sit and cover the defence, doyler comes deep naturally anyway as he wants to get on the ball and has the ball control to make quick passes and flick it on to fletch who we know has an eye for goal.
With henry and edwards sitting back it would allow Zubar and Ward the ability to make attacking runs and overlap with the wingers. Fletch is great in the air and doyle is pretty fast so could react to knock downs and through balls.
All in all it would be a solid spine to the team with a bit of pace on the wings and runs from deep. Also you have o’hara, foley, milijas etc who can always be added to slightly change the dynamic
Tough one for me, as you say in an ideal world you’d play them both in a 4-4-2 and they’d play well off each other. If i had to pick one over the other in a 4-5-1 i think i’d have to go with Fletch as i feel he’s a more natural goalscorer than Doyle. Although, the Newcastle game was Doyles best game by far in a long time and maybe an extended run in the would serve him well. Unfortunately, with only 12 games to go, it needs to be what serves Wolves best and not individuals so i would would stick with Fletch for Sunady.
Side note – I’m surprised to see Hammil go out to Boro on loan for the rest of the season, i was hoping that he’d get more of a look in now Mcarthy has gone!!
I agree with a few posters on here Doyle is our best forward at playing 451 (note not our best goal scorer) he holds the ball well and harasses defenders no end. However, his problems stem from our midfield not supporting him well enough. Edwards does the job fairly well when he’s in the team but O’Hara and Milijas don’t. 442 isn’t an option without serious strengthening at the back and in central midfield, which leaves us the the difficult decision of leaving out our top scorer if we want the best team for playing 451. Personally after last weeks performance I would leave Doyle in for now and switch in game if its not working out.
My team for the weekend if fit.
Hennessey
Ward, Bassong, Stearman, Zubar
Jarvis, Henry, Edwards, O’hara, Kightly
Doyle
Let’s see if Top Cat can find a way of incorporating both Doyle and Fletcher, in the same starting line up.
As at the moment they are our most potent attackers and they should both play, even in a 4-5-1.
I’d give Doyle O’Hara’s role.
Hammill out on loan for the rest of the season – obviously we have enough players…
Yes, just read it too. Disappointed at that news. From rumours and from reading between lines, I’d thought perhaps he’d had a disagreement with MM. So, under TC, I was quietly hoping that he would get back into to the first XI reckoning.
Hammill needs games, and it’s pretty clear that he won’t get it here at Wolves!
I say play Fletch until the end of the season, get in players that allows us to try 4-4-2 then try the Doyle/Fletcher pairing next season – provided we stay up, of course!
Sorry Thomas the thought of Ward playing left midfield scares me to death. Every time he has had to play (or selected to play there), which thankfullly has n`t been to often, he is bypassed by the oppositions` quicker and more mobile midfield players who pass and move round him.
Haven`t you realised that teams let him attack deep, deliberatly back off him, knowing he hasn`t got the pace to get back when the ball is lost on the edge of the oppositions box, Liverpool and the Shite at home being classic examples.
I`m with TC and I don`t care which of Doyle or Fletcher he plays, so long as the team score more goals than our opponents. Its the managers call as to which one of them is to play or both. The old argument about 442 or 451 keeps cropping up, my mate Clive is absolutely correct, we don`t have the pacey midfielders to bomb on to support either striker, only Henry can do that for me. Fresh pacey legs needed in the summer – whichever division we end up in.
Just for the record, it was martin not me who wanted Ward left-mid.
Sending out Hammill on loan adds to the incredible decisions coming out from Wolves….How could they discard a player like Hammill. The few games he was involved he showed something we dont really have at Wolves…..being direct, exciting and unpredictable….with a hunger to do well……..still its Wolves we are talking about…..we have luxuries in numbers it seems….never never a dull moment. Mind you, I did feel we should have kept Guediora also.
Hi e frendo. Absolutly right re Hammill, another very strange decision. Same as Guediora, currently getting rave reports and MOM performances for my local championship side. MM signed both for big money, then never really played them. If only they had been Irish or in our championship winning side.
Another reason I don`t feel inclined – yet, to renew my season ticket.
Go Fletch, hit Fletch over the top… f*ckin’ hell!!!
http://bit.ly/c1SMvF
Off Topic.. I thought we had a surprise new appointment when I saw the smoke rising by the ground yesterday